I was going to write a blog about what happened in Iowa. Then I waited too long and decided to write a blog about New Hampshire. Now that's old news. But what is surprising is that there's no clear front runner in either the Democratic or Republican race. I love it.
I'm going to hypothesize, theorize and opine about the primaries. I'm going to make random predictions. I'm as qualified as anyone. Just consider how well the pollsters called it in New Hampshire.
The next primaries to watch are South Carolina, Michigan and Nevada. I love that we've come this far in the race, which really isn't that far, and we don't have a clear winner. Now we get to hear the bullshit the contenders will heap upon these states. This is actually a good thing. Usually, after New Hampshire, the primaries fade a bit from the news and we don't get to hear the rhetoric. The thing is, the rhetoric we hear in New Hampshire is dramatically different than the rhetoric in Michigan. Michigan is the solid blue collar state with a deep history in the auto-making industry which has suffered massively for decades. I want to know what the contestants believe is important to this crowd. The Republicans should be afraid to step foot in this state. It's their policies (which the Dems have been complacent with) that allowed the auto industry to take their jobs overseas.
I predict that Clinton will win this state. Why? Just call it a gut feeling. Actually, there was a poll released today in the Washington Post with Obama nearly erasing her lead, but I think her strong showing in New Hampshire is going to help her in Michigan. It won't be over by a long shot for Obama if he comes in second, but he'll really have to work his ass off to keep in it.
The more interesting race by far is the Republicans. The same Washington Post poll showed McCain taking the lead in public opinion. This concerns me. I think he has a good chance of being elected president if he wins the nomination. I think he's the only Republican with a chance of winning. And a race between him and Hillary would be ugly. Frankly, this is a worst case scenario. Obama needs to be the Dem's nominee if McCain wins the Republican nomination. Obama is squeaky clean really. The baggage that Hillary brings to race would sink her and the rest of the Democrats.
Of course, if anyone but McCain wins, I think Hillary or Obama have it in the bag. I can't wait to see the Republicans take a hit. Unfortunately, McCain's been vetted. He's a good guy, reasonable even. I don't agree with him 98% of the time and I'd hate to see him win, but he can't be attacked with much. On the other hand, it makes me giddy to think of the mud-slinging that would go on if, say, Rudy Guilliani wins the nomination. Evangelical Christians would be bombarded of pictures of Guilliani in drag. Not to mention, pictures of his many wives!!! This would be the best. Far better than any of Hillary's crap.
My prediction: McCain wins it. It's bound to happen that my anticipation of a good, juicy race would be ruined by the rise of McCain. And why should he win? He is the best Republican candidate. That's just a fact. The others are jokes.
Let me just note my fear of Mike Huckabee. A win by him would be truly scary. If the evangelicals mobilize around that guy, welcome to hell. Check out these books for a glimpse into the future: The Handmaid's Tale by Margaret Atwood and The Fifth Sacred Thing by Starhawk. These are two of my favorite books, and both describe some sort of takeover of the country by the Christian right-wing conservatives. These are the same evangelicals that put Bush in office. We can't underestimate their mobilizing capabilities.
So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Maybe by the time the primary comes to Maryland, my vote will actually count. But count me out. I'm voting for Gravel. Neither Hillary or Barack need my vote, and the things that bother me about both of them cancel each other out. By voting for Gravel, I'm letting the Dems know I like what he has to say and maybe they ought to consider his ideas. I think he's still on the ballot. If not, the socialist from Ohio gets my vote.
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A Huckabee candidacy would be awesome. For the Democrats, I mean. The Republican Party is a loosely bound conglomeration of the "fiscal conservatives", the "social conservatives", and the "national security conservatives". Huckabee only appeals to one of the three. If he were to win the candidacy, I think the other two segments would jump ship in droves.
From what I read, Clinton was the only "major" candidate on the ballot in Michigan, because the other candidates took their names off the ballot due to Michigan moving their primary so early. The Dems aren't even going to count the Michigan delegates' votes at the convention.
Your concerns about a possible McCain candidacy are well-founded. Not to put too much faith in polls, but head-to-head polls show McCain defeating both Hillary and Obama. The only candidate who can defeat McCain? Surprisingly, John Edwards.
I agree with you that Hillary brings a lot of baggage to the race. It's a shame because I really believe that she is the most qualified of all of the Democratic candidates to be president. But she's a very polarizing figure. And at a time when the Republican party is demoralized, fragmented, and disorganized, I fear that a Clinton candidacy would actually serve to unite and reinvigorate the opposition, in a way that an Obama or Edwards candidacy wouldn't.
As far as Obama is concerned, he's certainly an effective and inspirational speaker. He has a great personal narrative. But I don't think he has the experience to be president yet, as evidenced by the lack of detail in his positions. He speaks in terms of principles and platitudes-- and hey, I like a good platitude as much as the next pinko commie queer-- but I just don't see the same command of the issues that Clinton has. And as she has noted, this isn't the kind of job where you want someone learning the ropes along the way.
Which, interestingly, leads me to Edwards. He's not as qualified as Clinton, but he is qualified in my opinion, and he doesn't seem to inspire the same kind of unifying hatred that Hill does. He's not as inspiring as Obama, but his 2004 "two Americas" platform still rings true. plus he's already experienced the slings and arrows of a presidential campaign. That's why Edwards ultimately is my pick for president.
Of course, I don't believe he's got a snowball's chance of winning. and Maryland's primary is on February 12, after the Feb 5 "super-duper Tuesday" multi-state primaries, when I believe the choices will be finalized. and I'm a registered Green, so I can't vote in the primary anyway. so... MY OPINION DOESN'T MATTER!
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